UFC 207 is around the corner and I know a lot of you are deciding which fighters to bet on. To help with that, we take a look at the fights of the main card to see who has the best chances to win and who you should bet on. Welcome to the UFC 207 Betting Guide!
Starting at the bottom…
Louis Smolka vs Ray Borg
This is a really interesting match-up between two young fighters. Both are entertaining and have earned multiple Fight of the night bonuses.
Louis has great BJJ and creative striking, like his step-in sidekick.
He defeated the likes of Ben Nguyen, Paddy Holohan and Neil Seery. In the UFC he lost two times: first time to Chris Cariaso and the second time was in his last fight against Brandon Moreno, who managed to submit him. He will be hungry to show what he can do and not get a second loss in a row.
Ray Borg is also coming off a loss; in his case to Justin Scoggins – a fight many thought he would win. He is touted as one of the top future prospects at flyweight and in the UFC. He has great grappling and he is well rounded.
Borg is a 1.80 favorite on Sportsbet.com.au and I agree. I think Borg’s grappling and all-around skillset will be too much for Smolka. My prediction is Borg by decision or a round 2 or 3 submission.
Dong Hyun Kim vs Tarec Saffiedine
The “Stun Gun” returns after a year long lay-off. He was supposed to fight both on UFC 202 and at UFC Belfast, but neither fight happened. Now, it seems we will finally get so see him again. He is a Judo blackbelt and a technical striker. His only losses have been to the best in the welterweight divison – current champion Tyron Woodley, former interim champ Carlos Condit and BJJ wizard Demian Maia. He is a strong wrestler and will be looking to take Tarec to the ground.
Tarec Saffiedine has been a decent welterweight, but like Kim lost to the best – like Rory MacDonald and Tyron Woodley. He is predominately a striker and will want to keep the fight standing. But can he do it against “Stun Gun”?
A win for either fighter could mean a break into the top five and a top level opponent in the next fight. I’m going with Dong Hyun Kim, who is a 1.69 favorite, via decision. He has the skills to keep the fight where he wants to and I think that he is eager to get to the top of the division.
TJ Dillashaw vs John Lineker
This is a fight for the next shot at the bantamweight title. Indeed a lot will change at UFC 207 in that division. But more on that later.
TJ Dillashaw is a top fighter not only at 135, but on the roster. He held the title and only lost it to the former and current champion, Dominic Cruz. He is rightfully the heavy, 1.40 favorite. Everyone is expecting him to win.
John Lineker, on the other hand, is the underdog, but he’s been on a tear lately. His nickname “Hands of Stone” suits him well. However, he generates most of his power when he uses the square on stance – and that really only works if you get in a brawl with him. I think TJ has the skills to make this a technical fight and show off his footwork.
Unless TJ gets caught, I don’t see an upset. The sensible option is to bet on Dillashaw, but if you like to wager on the underdogs, Lineker at 2.94 could be a nice sum of money.
Dominic Cruz vs Cody Garbrandt
And now we come to the first title fight. Cruz and Cody will square off for the bantamweight belt, and it going to be a good one.
Garbrandt is undoubtedly a very good fighter. He has all the skills and he has knockout power in both hands. However, when we are talking about Dominic Cruz, that becomes almost irrelevant. His evasive footwork is so good that landing any shot on him, let alone a good hard clean one, is extremely hard.
When it comes to fighting Cruz, you have to be good at one of the following to have a chance: cutting of space in the cage and forcing a clinch game, defending takedowns or being an excellent, excellent counter striker. So far, Cody doesn’t impress me enough to give him a change at either.
Then again, all it takes is one punch.
Can Garbrandt land a clean strike for a KO inside 25 minutes? So far, no one’s been able to. The smart money is as always on Cruz: he is just to hard to hit. He’s a favorite at 1.44 for a reason.
Amanda Nunes vs Ronda Rousey
The return of the former women’s bantamweight champion has caused a lot of anger among the MMA community. Ronda Rousey refused to do any kind of MMA related media – she only appeared on Ellen and Conan.
However, that holds little significance to the fight. As with any Rousey fight, we have to talk about the armbar.
Because if she gets in the position for it, the fight is over. But, she has to get there. The Holly Holm fight showed that she has to work on her striking – a lot. And because she has practically been a recluse for the past year, we don’t know what she has been doing. Has she become a much better striker in her time off? Many criticize her coach Edmund for being the one who taught her bad boxing; and well, her shadow boxing does look off and her striking in the cage was never anything but rudimentary – a way to get to the clinch, where she could dominate.
Unlike Ronda, Amanda has been training striking a lot longer and is a lot better at it.
She has the advantage standing up as far as we know. Even if Rousey spend a year improving her striking, that is only a year. Proper striking takes years to develop and a disparity shows quickly.
And let’s not forget – even if Ronda’s striking – or at least her ability to avoid strikes – has improved massively, Nunes is still a BJJ black and a Judo brown belt. She has won a number of accolades in the top BJJ tournaments and is a skilled grappler.
All in all, at 2.20 for Amanda Nunes, you’d have to be crazy not to take the bet. She has more tools than Rousey; Ronda only has one. She is a favorite only because of her star power, take the advantage of it and make some money.
Hop on over to SportsBet to get started and follow our UFC 207 Betting Guide to make the most of your money.
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