Nathan Brown dropped his tipping selections for Sportsbet.com.au before the first bounce of 2017 and will be providing his best bets before each and every round. Nathan Brown certainly fancies himself as a punter for Sportsbet and is relishing the chance to provide AFL Tipsters and Punters with his unique insider’s perspective of the game. He’s also relishing the chance to get his mug on another one of your screens!
GWS – $4.50
Another year of footy into them playing together. Jonno Patton looks ready to take control. Forward end of Patton, Cameron and Lobb look very hard to contain. Think Carey, McKernan and Longmire at their very best in the 90’s.
The thing people don’t realise about GWS when you see the flash and the run and the excitement is that they set up defensively as good as anyone. They have hard nuts around the footy who love the contest – Ward, Scully, Shiel, Griffen, Kelly and all of them can run, run, run.
Nathan William, Jacob Hopper, Heath Shaw and add Brett Deledio to a back flank that is fast, furious and full of skill.
Josh Kennedy – $3.50
Cant go past Josh Kennedy again. Fills his boots at Subiaco where they smash sides. Kennedy also plays well on the fast deck of Etihad Stadium and the Eagles play five of their away games at Etihad. Buddy will go close but will still play well up the ground, while Tom Lynch at Gold Coast relies heavily on how his team performs.
Gary Ablett – $23
All the talk is he is fresh, fit and on fire. He’s won the Brownlow twice before and Gold Coast will be better this year. His current price of $23 is well over what it should be. Umpires vote for him, he will spend time forward this year so he will add goals to his possessions. If he kicks three but only racks up 20 – 25, he will vote. I also fancy having something on Ablett each way (to finish top 3) at $6.50.
TOP 8 FINISH
Melbourne – $2.10
Melbourne’s draw is a dream. They play finals. The young list have grown together like GWS and are ready to take on the best. Jack Watts could be the difference between them making up the numbers in the eight and being a real challenger.
ROUND ONE BEST
I like to look at the Overs/Unders lines early in the season. Dry, fast tracks with fit players are conducive to high scoring. Seven of the nine games in Round One last year were over the line.
GWS and Adelaide averaged 232 points between them in the first six rounds last year and the overs line is 189 – or Sportsbet have pick your own total.
Tip: GWS vs Adelaide Over 189.5 ($1.90)
Fremantle and Geelong overs line is 166 which is very achievable. Ross Lyon has said that his team will be more attacking and are looking to score. They add Fyfe and Sandilands back in to generate footy.
Tip: Fremantle vs Geelong Over 166.5 ($1.90)
ROUND ONE MULTI BET
Adelaide vs GWS Over 189.5
Fremantle v Geelong Over 166.5
Total Payout = $6.49
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*all sportsbet.com.au odds correct at time of posting